A big day for US markets tomorrow with the release of the first quarter (Q-1) GDP and the conclusion of the 2-day Federal Reserve policy meeting. As few expect new policy actions, the Fed's communication challenge (and, therefore, the scope for market reaction) is less in the statement and more in the press conference ... particularly when it comes to (i) the execution details of the previously-announced measures, and (ii) other measures should they be needed. As regards the GDP number, and even though the economic shut down started in mid March, consensus expectation is for a 4% contraction. Would be the first negative quarter in six years, would get close to the -4.4% of Q-1 2009, though not the -8.4% of the last quarter of 2008. Sadly, the contraction of the first quarter of this year will, in retrospect, prove to be very small relative to the one occurring this quarter. #markets #economy …see more